2007 SUMMIT COVERAGE: Businesses must overcome ‘fog’ of pandemic preparedness

first_img See also: Adding to that miasma is the state of US healthcare. In part because of a shortage of workers and the physical limitations of medical centers, the system has little “surge capacity” for the huge influx of patients a pandemic would cause. “We have basically taken [the healthcare] system and sucked it to the bone,” Osterholm said. Maintain flexibility. Osterholm recognized the uncertainty involved in pandemic planning and stressed that plans need malleability so they can adapt to the elusive realities of a pandemic. “Anyone who develops a concrete plan is making a mistake,” he said. “Be capable and be flexible. Another layer of mist comes in the form of making decisions about vaccines and antiviral drugs. Osterholm lauded companies like Roche for increasing production of antiviral drugs like osteltamivir (Tamiflu), but said it remains unclear how effective these drugs will be against H5N1 if it becomes the pandemic strain. How high mortality rates will be Overcome pandemic fatigue. Recognize that some executives may see pandemic planning as no longer important, Osterholm said, calling the phenomenon “pandemic fatigue” and saying, “Acknowledge, accept, and plan around pandemic fatigue.” Osterholm spoke at CIDRAP’s “Business Preparedness for Pandemic Influenza: Second National Summit,” held this week for hundreds of leaders in business, government, and academia. How effective and plentiful antiviral drugs and vaccines will be—and when they’ll be ready Osterholm, director of the University of Minnesota’s Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy (CIDRAP), publisher of CIDRAP News, said that several factors cloud the preparedness landscape: Even if companies stockpile antivirals, they face another dilemma: when to use them. If they were to withhold them during a first pandemic wave anticipating a more severe second wave that didn’t happen, people would question the decision, Osterholm said. Likewise, leaders could decide to distribute stockpiled drugs during the first wave, only to discover that the second is more severe. “When do you blow your wad?” he asked. How our communities will mitigate damage “Pre-pandemic” vaccines can be stockpiled in the hope that they may provide some protection against the influenza strain that ultimately causes a pandemic. However, as pointed out by vaccine expert Gregory Poland, MD, in a separate summit presentation Tuesday, a vaccine targeted to the specific pandemic strain would take months to develop and distribute. Feb 7, 2007 (CIDRAP News) – Orlando, FL – As businesses develop pandemic preparedness plans, they need to cut through a “fog” of uncertainty about exactly what pandemic influenza will look like and how their companies will be able to respond to it, infectious disease expert Michael Osterholm, PhD, MPH, said at a summit in Orlando Monday. The result, said Osterholm, is that “the availability of protective vaccine during the first wave of a pandemic just won’t be there.” He added, “For most of the world’s population, a vaccine will never be available throughout the duration of a pandemic.” Work around “just in time.” “Don’t try to change the global just-in-time economy,” he said. “That’s like swimming up Niagara Falls. Forget it. You’ve got to work around it.” And with estimates of the mortality rate in a pandemic ranging widely, Osterholm surmised, “We don’t really have a clue” about how many people will succumb. How many waves of the pandemic will occur, and how severe they’ll be Pandemic planning can produce its own haze as planners grapple with issues like ensuring their supply chain or determining government’s role. “We talk about what we might do or can do, but we really don’t know,” Osterholm said. “There are so many uncertainties.” This extends to experts’ estimates of how a pandemic might behave. “We have only a general sense of what the next pandemic influenza strain is capable of doing in terms of human illness or subsequent collateral damage,” he said. Add to that today’s just-in-time economy, in which supplies arrive as they are needed so that companies minimize storage costs. “It is the reality of today’s economy,” Osterholm said. “It’s what MBAs are made of.” That reality, though, means that “even a hiccup” of disruption will mean serious shortages, he predicted. Full text of Feb 2007 HHS report on community mitigation measureshttp://www.pandemicflu.gov/professional/community/community_mitigation.pdf Other steps businesses can take, according to Osterholm, include: “You’re not stuck to a plan,” he said. “You’re stuck to a process.” In addition, said Poland, director of the Mayo Vaccine Research Group in Rochester, Minn., drug companies—even at maximum worldwide production—could deliver only enough vaccine to inoculate 1% to 2% of the world’s population. Shining some light into the pandemic cloud, however, is the recent document on community mitigation measures by the US Department of Health and Human Services (see links below). “You don’t want to have a [pandemic planning] policy inconsistent with this document,” Osterholm said. How our overloaded healthcare systems will cope How our global just-in-time economy will affect access to goods and services He took his “fog of pandemic preparedness” concept from the theory of the “fog of war,” a state of ambiguity soldiers can find themselves in when they doubt their own capabilities and feel unsure of their adversary’s capabilities and intentions. Feb 1 CIDRAP News story: “HHS ties pandemic mitigation advice to severity” Learn from veterans. We need to look at those in the military who have studied the fog of war to explore what to do when unsure about what steps to take.last_img read more

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Bernd Leno insists he was always Arsenal’s No 1 despite Emi Martinez’s emergence

first_img Comment ‘I never feared it [losing the No 1 spot], said Leno.‘Because the club always gave me the feeling that I was the No 1. I am the No1, I was the No1 and I will be the No1. ‘That was always very good from the club. My job was to prove it every week and I think I did that tonight again.’More: FootballRio Ferdinand urges Ole Gunnar Solskjaer to drop Manchester United starChelsea defender Fikayo Tomori reveals why he made U-turn over transfer deadline day moveMikel Arteta rates Thomas Partey’s chances of making his Arsenal debut vs Man CityArsenal’s reward for being Liverpool is another cup clash against Manchester City.The Gunners beat Pep Guardiola’s side in the FA Cup semi-finals last term on their way to their success in August.The quarter-finals are set to be played on December 22nd & December 23rd.MORE: Carabao Cup quarter-final draw: Manchester United, Arsenal, Manchester City and Tottenham learn next opponents Bernd Leno insists he was always Arsenal’s No 1 despite Emi Martinez’s emergence Advertisement 🗣”The club always gives me the feeling that I was the number 1, I am the number 1 and will be the number 1″ Bernd Leno is confident he’s number 1 for Arsenal pic.twitter.com/W0sjPESj2m— Football Daily (@footballdaily) October 1, 2020center_img Advertisement Metro Sport ReporterThursday 1 Oct 2020 10:41 pmShare this article via facebookShare this article via twitterShare this article via messengerShare this with Share this article via emailShare this article via flipboardCopy link24.4kShares Bernd Leno’s spot was under threat (Picture: Getty)Arsenal goalkeeper Bernd Leno insists he wasn’t worried about his spot during his injury lay-off, despite the fine performances from Emi Martinez.The Argentine stopper filled in for Leno after he injured his knee in Arsenal’s second game back after the Premier League resumed in July. Leno’s injury was a huge blow to Arsenal but Martinez’s performances were sensational and he helped the Gunners to win the FA Cup.Many supporters were calling for the Argentine to be named Arsenal’s first choice but the Gunners sold him to Aston Villa for a fee of around £20million earlier this month. AdvertisementAdvertisementADVERTISEMENTLeno was instrumental in Arsenal’s Carabao Cup victory against Liverpool, making a string of fine saves in normal time and making two penalty stops in the shooutout win.The German was asked about his competition with Martinez afterwards but he insists the club always viewed him as no1. last_img read more

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