Recession, oil, gold, and interest rates: 4 macro drivers on my mind when investing now

first_img Click here to get access to our presentation, and learn how to get the name of this ‘double agent’! Manika Premsingh | Tuesday, 13th October, 2020 There’s a ‘double agent’ hiding in the FTSE… we recommend you buy it! Renowned stock-picker Mark Rogers and his analyst team at The Motley Fool UK have named 6 shares that they believe UK investors should consider buying NOW.So if you’re looking for more stock ideas to try and best position your portfolio today, then it might be a good day for you. Because we’re offering a full 33% off your first year of membership to our flagship share-tipping service, backed by our ‘no quibbles’ 30-day subscription fee refund guarantee. Our 6 ‘Best Buys Now’ Shares Recession, oil, gold, and interest rates: 4 macro drivers on my mind when investing now I would like to receive emails from you about product information and offers from The Fool and its business partners. Each of these emails will provide a link to unsubscribe from future emails. More information about how The Fool collects, stores, and handles personal data is available in its Privacy Statement. Image source: Getty Images. center_img Manika Premsingh owns shares of AstraZeneca and BP. The Motley Fool UK has recommended Unilever. Views expressed on the companies mentioned in this article are those of the writer and therefore may differ from the official recommendations we make in our subscription services such as Share Advisor, Hidden Winners and Pro. Here at The Motley Fool we believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. Some years, investing is all about the detail. Companies’ individual destinies drive their share prices. 2020 isn’t one of those years. It’s a year of the big picture. Even well-run or high-potential companies have been deeply impacted by macroeconomic factors like the pandemic, lockdowns, recession, and the stock market crash.Relatedly, prices of oil and gold, and interest rates have become increasingly significant too, given the sharp movement seen in them. I think we can still make gains, however, if we adjust our investing sails to this change in wind, which I suspect will guide stock markets in the foreseeable future too.5G is here – and shares of this ‘sleeping giant’ could be a great way for you to potentially profit!According to one leading industry firm, the 5G boom could create a global industry worth US$12.3 TRILLION out of thin air…And if you click here we’ll show you something that could be key to unlocking 5G’s full potential…#1. Stocks to beat the recessionIn this article I look at four of these macro drivers – recession, oil and gold prices, and interest rates – as the starting point for deciding where to invest. First, the recession. Technically, the UK is no longer in recession, and I for one am not entirely pessimistic about its prospects. But given the unpredictability of the times we are in, the possibility of falling back into it can’t be ruled out either. If there’s another recession or more likely, growth remains soft, I’d bet that defensives will continue to do well. Think about buying FTSE 100 stocks like AstraZeneca and Unilever with this in mind.#2. What to buy when oil prices fallNext, oil prices are closely tied to economic cycles. A slowdown, coupled with a steady move towards cleaner energy sources means that oil prices will remain subdued going forward. The International Energy Agency has revised down its oil demand forecasts for the remainder of 2020. As a result, big FTSE 100 oil companies like BP and Royal Dutch Shell can remain in an uncertain place. I’d counter this trend by investing in companies that support the electric vehicle trend like Johnson Matthey and Rio Tinto.#3. Riding the gold waveA soft economy and gold price increase go hand in hand. It follows that if we forecast that a slowdown will continue for now, the gold price should remain elevated. While there are many gold stocks to choose from, I’d focus on FTSE 100 precious metal producers like Polymetal International. It showed robust equity market performance even before the stock market crash. It also increased its dividend recently. #4. Beneficiaries from low interest ratesLast, consider interest rates. I don’t think there’s any dispute about the fact that low interest rates are bad news for banks. They are a response to poor economic conditions, which means lower credit demand in any case. Lower interest rates further reduce bank incomes. But, low interest rates also spur recovery. As the price of loans falls, both individuals and companies are encouraged to take on credit. I think real estate companies can benefit from this trend. Almost half of UK’s house ownership has been made possible through active mortgages, as per Bank of England numbers. I think FTSE 100 housebuilders like Persimmon and Barratt Developments are good examples of gainers from this trend.  Simply click below to discover how you can take advantage of this. Enter Your Email Address Don’t miss our special stock presentation.It contains details of a UK-listed company our Motley Fool UK analysts are extremely enthusiastic about.They think it’s offering an incredible opportunity to grow your wealth over the long term – at its current price – regardless of what happens in the wider market.That’s why they’re referring to it as the FTSE’s ‘double agent’.Because they believe it’s working both with the market… And against it.To find out why we think you should add it to your portfolio today… See all posts by Manika Premsinghlast_img

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